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To : FLUGHAFEN KIEL Fax : 49 4 31 32 36 21
Attn. : Mr. Matthias KÖHN
CC : CO/VE – Christophe POTOCKI
CO/E – Erick VAN AELST – Mario FORMICA
From : CO/EC - Fabrice VAUTIER
Our Tel : +33 5 62 21 60 73 Our Fax : +33 5 62 21 61 93
Our e-mail : fabrice.vautier@ atr.fr
Date : 28 May 2001
Ref. : CO/EC n° 0238/01 N° of sheet(s) : 10
Subject : Development of Kiel Airport
( ref : your fax dated Aril 26th, 2001 )
Dear Mr. Köhn
Following your fax dated April 26th, we are pleased to provide you with the information you requested about ATR’s views on regional market analysis and perspectives.
1. - History of ATR products
1.1 - ATR program milestones
ATR is producing two models in the 40 to 70 seat market segment. The ATR 42 can accommodate 44 to 50 seats whereas the ATR 72 can accommodate 64 to 74 seats.
First ATR 42 came into service in December 1985, whereas the ATR 72 made its first commercial flight in October 1989.
In order to meet airline’s expectations for aircraft showing higher comfort, improved payload and luggage capability and superior performance in difficult operating environments, ATR has launched in 1994 an improvement of its product range. The modifications were consisting in fitting to the aircraft new engines, new 6 blade propeller, new noise absorbing materials and devices as well as a brand new designed cabin interior.
The new products were named ATR 42-500 and ATR 72-500 and came into service respectively in late 1995 and 1997 and have encountered strong commercial success, especially in Europe where many regional airlines operating on behalf of major airlines have placed significant orders for the new type.
1.2 - ATR sales and delivery status
Those figures make ATR the leading turboprop manufacturer. 17 aircraft have been sold during the last 4 months and 40 during the last 12 months, thus highlighting that turboprop aircraft still have a key role to play in the regional transport development throughout the world.
2. - Market trends and forecasts
2.1 - World market forecasts
ATR market forecasts are based on the FEAMA (Forum of European Aerospace Market Analysts) consensus. The FEAMA members include all the most important European airframe, engine, systems manufacturers and suppliers (extended as well to non-European manufacturers). FEAMA members are :
Airframe Engine Systems Lessors /
Manufacturers Manufacturers Suppliers Airlines
Alenia BMW DTI GECAS
ATR General Electric Honeywell KLM
British Aerospace MTU Lucas Aerospace
Dassault Aviation Pratt & Whitney Messier Dowty
EADS Rolls Royce Smiths Industries
Embraer Snecma Volvo Aerospace
The consensus reached on the regional market forecast is presented hereafter for the 30 to 90 seat market segment :
Those figures have been established in 1999 and it is likely that the next consensus revision will give a better role to turboprops when compared to regional jets because of the following factors :
2.2 - Expected ATR orders
As indicated in previous chapter, the expected delivery rate for 30 to 89 seat turboprops is 67 aircraft per year in average.
During the late 90s, industry consolidation has led to the closure of British Aerospace, Saab and Fokker assembly lines. Today only two turboprop manufacturers are remaining on the market : De Haviland and ATR.
ATR and De Haviland have approximately a 50 percent market share each. It is ATR’s intention to keep this market share thanks to:
Therefore, ATR forecast is based on an annual production of both ATR 42 and ATR 72 close to 30 aircraft for year.
2.3 - European market specificity
ATR analysis is that jetmania ruling the US market will not affect Europe at such levels than those experienced among US operators. In fact, it is very unlikely that regional jets are going to flood Europe and to storm the market as in the US, because of the following reasons:
In fact, the European market is today the most important market for ATR when compared to the North American market, as expressed by the following figures:
3. - ATR aircraft airfield data and requirement
3.1 - Basic airfield data
3.1.1 - Airfield performance
Given the declared distances at Kiel airport, ATR 42 and 72 performance indicate that basic required take-off and landing distances are fully compatible with efficient operations from and to this airfield.
ATR 42-500 ATR 72-500
Take Off Field Length 1 165 m 1,223 m
ISA – Sea Level – MTOW
Take-Off Field Length 990 m 1,079 m
ISA – Sea Level – TOW for 300 NM
Landing Field Length 1,126 m 1,048 m
ISA – Sea Level – MLW
Landing Field Length 1,040 m 985 m
ISA – Sea Level – Max pax LW
Nevertheless, a specific analysis taking into account all
(TODA/ASDA/TODA/LDA) and flight path obstacles will be performed to assess ATR 42-500 and 72-500 performance at Kiel.
3.1.2 – Certificated noise levels
Certificated noise levels expressed in EPNdB are summarized in the table below and compared to current chapter III limits :
ATR ATR ICAO / FAR 36
42-500 72-500 chapter III limit
Take-off 76.6 79.0 89
Sideline 80.7 83.2 94
Approach 92.4 92.2 98
Global 249.7 254.4 281
ATR aircraft are fully compliant with current chapter III limits as well as with future chapter IV regulations, which are anticipated to be at 271 global EPNdB.
3.2 - ATR performance at Kiel airport
3.2.1 - Considered data
Runway 08 26
Elevation 92 ft 86 ft
TORA 1 260 m 1 180 m
ASDA 1 260 m 1 260 m
TODA 1 320 m 1 180 m
LDA 1 100 m 1 216 m
Slope -0.15% +0.15%
Obstacles 1 considered 6 considered
3.2.2 - ATR 42-500 & 72-500 specific airfield performance at Kiel
The specific performance is computed using the following assumptions :
Under those conditions, both ATR 42-500 and ATR 72-500 are able to perform at Kiel at their structural weights:
3.2.3 - ATR 42-500 & 72-500 specific range out of Kiel
The range at full passenger payload is computed using the following assumptions :
Under those conditions, ATR 42-500 and ATR 72-500 are able to carry their maximum passenger payload on the following distances:
ATR range out of Kiel allows reaching most of destinations within Western and Central Europe as well as most of Scandinavian cities, as shown here below:
3.2.4 - Conclusions
As indicated in the previous analysis, ATR 42-500 & 72-500 aircraft can perform at maximum efficiency to and from Kiel airport, as demonstrated by day to day Cimber Air’s operations.
ATR 42-500 and 72-500 offer the ability to Kiel passengers to reach most of Western, Northern and Central European economic centers with a high degree of comfort and reliability.
From this perspective, the current runway does not need any extension and is fully adapted to efficient regional operations using ATR aircraft.
I trust all this data will meet your expectations and will constitute a useful material to build your airport development plan.
I have also attached to this fax a copy of a 4 pages leaflet showing ATR products benefit as far as environment is concerned.
I stand at your disposal for any additional data or clarification you may require;
Director, Technical Sales